基礎研究中有一些方向是無法預知結果的,另一些方向則是有清楚的目標,但達到目標的途徑需要探索。如可控核聚變。本文提出的任務就屬于這一類。當然由于作者背景的局限性,主要出發點還是從計算機的角度考慮的。不過,作者提出的目標遠遠超出了單純的計算機領域。
微軟研究院的吉姆.格瑞歸納了未來信息技術發展的十二個根本問題,當前的現實和文章提出的目標距離還很遠,這也就表明信息技術離“成熟”還很遠。應該看到,目前的技術與文中提出的目標的差距不僅僅是量的區別,因為用現有技術簡單延伸是無法實現這些目標的,必須在技術上有大的突破性進展。這倒正好說明了量變和質變的關系。
這十二個問題簡而言之可以表述為:
1. Scalability: Devise a software and hardware architecture that scales up by a factor of 106 That is, an application’s storage and processing capacity can automatically grow by a factor of a million, doing jobs faster (l06x speedup) or doing larger jobs in the same time (1O6x scaleup), just by adding more resources.
可伸縮性:創造一種軟件和硬件的體系結構,可以擴展一百萬倍。即:某個具體應用的存儲和處理能力可以通過添加資源而自動地提高一百萬倍,也就是說處理同一問題速度提高一百萬倍或用同樣的時間可以處理規模擴大一百萬倍的問題。(這里,“自動地”非常重要,也就是說除了加入資源,用戶用不著做任何其他干預—如重新編程,對系統配置進行調整……)
2. The Turing Test: Build a computer system that wins the imitation game at least 30% of the time.
圖靈測試:建造在模仿游戲中獲勝概率至少為30%的計算機系統。
(THE TURING TEST. The Turing Test is based on the Imitation Game, played by three people. In the imitation game, a man, a woman, and a judge are in three separate rooms. The three cannot see one another, so they communicate via e-mail. The judge questions them for five minutes, trying to discover which of the two is the man and which is the woman. This would be very easy, except that the man lies and pretends to be a woman. The woman tries to help the judge find the truth. If the man is a really good impersonator, he might fool the judge 50% of the time. In practice, it seems the judge is right about 70% of the time.
Now, the Turning Test replaces the man with a computer pretending to be a woman. If the computer can fool the judge 30% of the time, it passes the Turing Test.
圖靈測試是基于模仿游戲的測試。模仿游戲由三個人參加:一位男士,一位女士和一個裁判。他們分處于三間房子里,彼此不能見面,只能通過電子郵件互相通信。裁判對其余兩位提問五分鐘,以確定其中哪一位是男士,哪一位是女士。這本來應該很容易,除非男士說謊假裝女士。在游戲里女士要力圖幫助裁判找出真相。如果男士善于模仿他也許有50%的機會瞞過裁判。但在實際游戲里,好像裁判做出正確判斷的概率是70%。
在圖靈測試里,由計算機代替男士來假裝女士。如果計算機能在30%的時間里瞞過裁判,就算其通過了圖靈測試)
3. Speech to text: Hear as well as a native speaker.
聽寫:應該和人聽寫母語水平相當 4. Text to speech: Speak as well as a native speaker.
誦讀文本:應該和人誦讀母語文本的水平相當
5. See as well as a person: Recognize objects and motion.
具有人類一樣的視覺能力:能像人那樣識別目標和運動狀態
6. Personal Memex: Record everything a person sees and hears, and quickly retrieve any item on request.
具有人一樣的記憶:記錄下一個人看到和聽到的一切,而且可以按照要求迅速提取每個紀錄。
7. World Memex: Build a system that given a text corpus, can answer questions about the text and summarize the text as precisely and quickly as a human expert in that field. Do the same for music, images, art, and cinema.
智能資料存儲處理系統:建立一個系統,對于一個給定的文本語料庫,任何關于所存儲的文本的問題都可以回答,可以對文本庫任何一段文本做出摘要,回答和摘要的準確程度和速度與該領域的專家相當。對于音樂、圖像、藝術作品及視頻節目也達到這樣的標準。
8. Telepresence: Simulate being some other place retrospectively as an observer (Teleoberserver): hear and see as well as actually being there, and as well as a participant. Simulate being some other place as a participant (Telepresent): interacting with others and with the environment as though you are actually there.
遠程臨場感:模擬另一個地方的場景使你感覺就好像是一個在現場的觀察者那樣聽見和看見現場發生的一切(遠程觀察);模擬你出席另一地點的活動,就好像你在現場一樣,與在現場的人士互相交流(遠程參與)。
9. Trouble-Free Systems: Build a system used by millions of people each day and yet administered and managed by a single part-time person.
無故障系統:建造一個系統,每天可供上百萬人使用,而只需要一個非全時工作人員管理。
10. Secure System: Assure that the system of problem 9 services only authorized users, service cannot be denied by unauthorized users, and information cannot be stolen (and prove it.)
具有安全性的系統:保證在剛才第9項中提出的系統只向得到授權的人士提供服務;任何未得到授權的人士都無法使系統中斷業務;存儲于系統中的信息不會被竊取(而且以上各項性能必須得到證明)
11. AlwavsUp: Assure that the system is unavailable for less than one second per hundred years-eight 9’ s of availability (and prove it).
隨時可用:保證該系統在每一百年內中斷工作的時間不超過1秒—即可用度達到八個九(而且這一指標必須得到證明)
12. Automatic Programmer: Devise a specification language or user interface that:
(a) makes it easy for people to express designs (1 ,000x easier),
(b) computers can compile, and
(c) can describe all applications (is complete).
The system should reason about application, asking questions about exception cases and incomplete specification. But it should not be onerous to use.
自動編程:建造一種需求描述語言或用戶界面,具有如下功能:
(a) 使人可以很容易地表述其設計(比現有語言容易1000倍);
(b) 計算機可以直接編譯;
(c) 可以描述任何應用(且具有完備性)
系統應該能對具體應用需求進行推理,對例外情況和不完備需求能提出疑問。但不能因此使使用變得困難。
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